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Overround MM

Two-sided market-making on Polymarket 5-minute crypto Up/Down binaries — quote both YES and NO below mid so the pair costs under $1, and exactly one side settles at $1. Income is the book overround plus the 20% maker rebate.

— decided — source — generated —

The decisive finding

What separated a losing design from a profitable one — and it was not a better model.

✕ Rejected — model-anchored

✓ Adopted — book-mid anchored

Backtest — every configuration positive

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Spread	Queue model	Shares filled	Net P&L	Per 100sh

Risks & limits

Disclosed in the study — what the backtest structurally cannot test.

Risk	Impact

Next steps

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Recorder — now building an out-of-sample window

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Stream	Total rows	Out-of-sample rows

Research figures transcribed from the study report; recorder figures read live. No capital deployed. Refreshed client-side every 60s. Built with Claude Code.