G1 — Live Validation

Polymarket 5-min · pre-registered gate (mechanics private) · hypothetical fills at real asks, net 3% fee · NO live trading · auto-refresh 2 min

MIRAGE

decision at n≥100 resolved T-60 signals: win>55% = real · ≤45% = mirage

Signals (resolved)

2107

+3 pending · 58.1/day

Win rate

22.3%

breakeven ≈ entry×1.03

Avg entry

0.257

real ask at decision

EV / share

-0.042

net of 3% fee

Total P&L

-89.23 sh

per 1-share stake

Equity curve — cumulative P&L per share (T-60)

time	sym	side	entry	ask size	result	P&L/sh
08-22 22:19Z	SOL	UP	0.440	5	pending	—
08-22 22:14Z	ETH	UP	0.250	46	LOST	-0.258
08-22 22:04Z	DOGE	UP	0.060	50	LOST	-0.062
08-22 22:04Z	SOL	UP	0.250	50	WON	+0.742
08-22 21:54Z	XRP	DOWN	0.170	50	WON	+0.825
08-22 21:44Z	DOGE	UP	0.120	60	LOST	-0.124
08-22 21:44Z	ETH	UP	0.410	48	WON	+0.578
08-22 21:24Z	DOGE	DOWN	0.020	10	WON	+0.979
08-22 21:24Z	XRP	DOWN	0.430	50	WON	+0.557
08-22 20:44Z	BTC	DOWN	0.070	25	LOST	-0.072
08-22 20:19Z	BNB	UP	0.290	50	LOST	-0.299
08-22 19:39Z	SOL	DOWN	0.320	5	LOST	-0.330
08-22 19:24Z	ETH	UP	0.390	5	LOST	-0.402
08-22 19:04Z	SOL	DOWN	0.180	43	WON	+0.815
08-22 18:44Z	BNB	UP	0.070	50	LOST	-0.072
08-22 18:44Z	ETH	UP	0.430	48	LOST	-0.443
08-22 18:34Z	ETH	DOWN	0.170	10	LOST	-0.175
08-22 18:14Z	XRP	UP	0.120	50	LOST	-0.124
08-22 18:14Z	SOL	UP	0.060	15	LOST	-0.062
08-22 18:14Z	ETH	UP	0.030	60	LOST	-0.031

symbol	n	win%	P&L
BNB	212	16%	-14.62
BTC	737	28%	-8.91
DOGE	259	12%	-28.37
ETH	379	24%	-12.40
SOL	264	22%	-5.91
XRP	256	18%	-19.02

n=774 · win 17.4% · entry 0.191 · EV -0.023/sh

logger heartbeat 3s ago · evals last 24h: 3327 (CL 100%, book 96%) · running 36.2d · generated 2026-08-22 22:20:02Z